The UFC octagon returns to Las Vegas this weekend for UFC 209. Two title fights dovetailed with a tremendous under-card; should have MMA fans salivating. I believe there's some good betting opportunities with this card, so let's get to work.
I had actually covered the main and co-main events in a previous piece. My mind hasn't changed since that article. Woodley's price has however got to the point where I'm willing to think about it.
In short, I believe that it's a fifty-fifty fight. For that reason I'm going to arb this fight. What this means is I'm going to bet both sides and take a guaranteed percentage. Arbitage opportunities appear in fighting regularly (due to most bookies offering odds with no draw). Our friends at BetMMA.Tips have a calculator that will allow you to see if you can guarantee a return on your investment.
Selection: I'm taking Thompson at 4/5 on Stan James and Woodley at 6/4 with an assortment of bookmakers. The above image provides you with three examples that you can follow in this situation. *DO NOT DO THIS TYPE OF BET WITH A BOOKMAKER THAT HAS A DRAW AS AN OPTION.*
Having looked at this fight again, I still believe it's a no bet for a straight win choice. There's just not enough in the line to really take a shot.
Where you will start seeing some interesting options, is in the prop betting markets. The most likely outcomes of this relate to the fight going the distance or Ferguson inside the distance.
I still think this is not a fight worth betting on straight unless Ferguson gets to 2/1 or Khabib is around 4/5 territority.
Selection: I like the decision props in this fight. Khabib is as big as 17/10 and Ferguson can be got at 13/2. If I was pushed for a play, these are the two I'd think of for a lucky 15 or trixie.
Mirsad Bektic vs. Darren Elkins: Mirsad Bektic is a top prospect, but this is the best competition he's ever faced. The ATT product has shown a much more rounded skill-set than his opponent but had difficulties against a similar opponent earlier in his career. I think he's evolved enough to deal with Elkins but no way am I accepting 1/6. The best value bet on Bektic is a stab at the 6/4 available for a decision victory.
Elkins is a grinder and a true gatekeeper of the division. He's durable as hell and only the best in the division have managed to finish him. I think 5/1 is too big a price not to take a small risk on Elkins personally. I'd be also looking at a small play at 9/1 for him to win by decision.
Selection: I've mentioned a few prices I like in this fight, but the bet I'd recommend is probably the fight going the distance at 11/10. There is the chance to arb this should you be inclined; 6/5 is available on the fight to not go the distance.
That's a wrap for another Odds & Ends. If you've any plays you're thinking about this weekend; feel free to add them in the comments section or on our Facebook page. Enjoy the fights and please do not bet what you can not afford to lose.
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